about population projections
Contact Peel Public Health to submit:
Need help understanding the data contained on this site?
- For each data source, information about data collection and analytical methods, limitations, the citation and additional resources can be found on the Data Sources and Methods page.
Two types of population projects are referenced in the Health Data Website:
Original source: Ontario Ministry of Finance
Distributed by: Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care: IntelliHEALTH Ontario.
Cite as: Population Projections [years], IntelliHEALTH Ontario, Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care [Released: release date].
Original source: Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Distributed by: Integrated Planning Division, Region of Peel.
Cite as: Population Forecasts [years], Hemson Consulting Ltd.
Ministry of Finance Projections:
- Projections are produced for July 1st of each year for the 30-year period following every Census using the cohort-component method.
- A base population is produced for one year by age group and sex from Statistics Canada’s population estimates.
- A separate analysis and projection is produced for each component of population growth – births, deaths, migration (including immigration, net emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration). These figures are added to the base population for each age and sex group to obtain the population for the subsequent year.
- This methodology is completed for each census divisions in Ontario. The sum of the projections for each of the census divisions is the Ontario-level total.
- The methodology used to determine LHIN population projections is a slight modification of the methods described here. Since the LHIN boundaries do not align directly with the census divisions or census sub-divisions, the Ministry of Finance has developed a process for allocating the population to each LHIN. More information about the methodology for the LHIN-specific projections is provided to the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care each year by the Ministry of Finance.
- Population projections are available at the provincial, LHIN and census division level.
- The population projections are updated periodically using the following population estimates from Statistics Canada – preliminary postcensal, updated postcensal and final postcensal. These updates result in slight differences in the population projections, therefore the release date for the population projections used should be noted.
Hemson Consulting Ltd Forecasts:
- Hemson Consulting Ltd. is retained by the Region of Peel to produce population forecasts to 2031 for the Region of Peel and the three municipalities (Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon). This includes an age structure forecast by single year of age for all census years from 2006 to 2031.
- The 2006 Census population for Peel and the municipalities is used as the base population.
- The forecasts are developed based on the allocation of housing by type in each municipality. The number of housing units by type is determined and a “persons per unit” factor (calculated for each municipality) is applied to each housing type to obtain the household population. This household population is adjusted to account for the non-household population (e.g., institutional population in each municipality) and the census net-undercoverage.
- The determination of housing units by type is made using information related to housing completion information, land availability and regional and local official plans and policies in each municipality.
- Demographic assumptions related to the number of persons per unit are based on the trends seen in each of the three municipalities (e.g., population age structure, household characteristics).
- The age structure of the population is determined through a cohort survival model which takes into account births, deaths and migration.
- The forecast is structured in five year increments by census years (2006, 2011, 2016. etc) and by five-year age groups (from 0 to 4 years through 90+ years).
- To obtain a population age structure by single year of age, the populations within the 5-year age groups are interpolated based on the single-year pattern from the Ministry of Finance population projections (described above). The same age structure for the Region of Peel is applied to the three municipality population forecasts.
- The population projections provided by the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care are used for the calculation of crude and age-standardized rates for Peel and Ontario, as well as the municipalities (Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon).
- The Hemson population forecasts are used only for the purposes of projecting the number of births in Peel. The use of these forecasts produces a projected birth cohort which is closer to the actual number of births that occur in Peel.
- To calculate the population forecasts by age group and sex for an inter-censal year, the user must interpolate based on the population forecasts for the intervening census years (e.g., estimate the value for all years in between 2006 and 2011 by assuming that the growth was equally distributed between each year).
- The population projections are founded in demographic assumptions about recent trends in births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Therefore there is a degree of uncertainty inherent, which can range from low- to high-growth scenarios. The population projections provided by the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care represent the medium-growth scenario.
- The Hemson population forecasts are available for Peel, Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon only.
- The methodology used for the Hemson population forecasts is different than those used by the Ministry of Finance and therefore the population projections and population forecasts are not directly comparable.
REFERENCES AND RESOURCES
- Population Projections APHEO Core Indicator Data Resources
- Ontario Population Projections Update
Contact Ron Jaros (Manager, Integrated Planning Division, Region of Peel) for more information – firstname.lastname@example.org