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about population projections

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  • For each data source, information about data collection and analytical methods, limitations, the citation and additional resources can be found on the Data Sources and Methods page.

DATA SOURCE

Original source: Ontario Ministry of Finance
Distributed by: Ontario Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care: IntelliHEALTH Ontario.
Cite as: Population Projections, 2016-2041, Ontario Ministry of Finance. IntelliHEALTH Ontario, Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care.

METHODS

Data Collection Methods

  • Projections are produced for July 1st of each year for the 30-year period following every Census using the cohort-component method.
    • A base population is produced for one year by age group and sex from Statistics Canada’s population estimates.
    • A separate analysis and projection is produced for each component of population growth – births, deaths, migration (including immigration, net emigration, net change in non-permanent residents, interprovincial in- and out-migration, and intraprovincial in- and out-migration). These figures are added to the base population for each age and sex group to obtain the population for the subsequent year.
    • Thi methodology is completed for each census divisions in Ontario. The sum of the projections for each of the census divisions is the Ontario-level total.
  • Population projections are available at the provincial, LHIN and census division level.
  • The population projections are updated periodically using the following population estimates from Statistics Canada: preliminary postcensal, updated postcensal and final postcensal. These updates result in slight differences in the population projections, therefore the release date for the population projections used should be noted.

Data Analysis Methods

  • The population projections are used for the calculation of crude and age-standardized rates for Peel and Ontario, as well as the municipalities (Brampton, Mississauga and Caledon).
  • Population projections are only used when population estimates data is not available.

LIMITATIONS

  • The population projections are founded in demographic assumptions about recent trends in births, deaths and migration over the projection period. Therefore, there is a degree of uncertainty inherent, which can range from low- to high-growth scenarios. The population projections provided by the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care represent the medium-growth scenario.

REFERENCES AND RESOURCES

  1. Population Projections APHEO Core Indicator Data Resources http://core.apheo.ca/index.php?pid=62
  2. Ontario Population Projections Update http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/

Last updated: February 12, 2019



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